Random thought for the morning.  The big gossip news today is that John Travolta will not be doing publicity for Sony’s upcoming The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3.  Fair enough. The man lost his sixteen year old son in a freak incident just six months ago, so the idea of doing a junket and/or appearing on the late-night talk shows is probably not very appealing right now (if ever again).  But here’s the awkward situation.  It stands to argue that the news that Travolta is not doing publicity, as revealed by the film’s costar (Denzel Washington), makes for a bigger media splash than if Travolta had just gone out and done the traditional publicity tour.  Surely if his son had not just died, the footage of Travolta doing this appearance or that appearance wouldn’t be the least bit noteworthy.  Furthermore, if Travolta had gone the publicity route, so soon after said family tragedy, each appearance and each interview would have been front page fodder for the gossip rags and gossipy news sites (such as, sad to say, Huffington Post’s entertainment section).  Either he opens up about his grief and every quote becomes a ‘must read heart breaker’, or he completely focuses on the film, which then is a news story in and of itself (”Why won’t he talk about it?  Is he in denial?” the tabloids will scream).

Point being, from a purely objective point of view, can we not inexplicably conclude that the death of Jett Travolta is actually a boon for Sony marketing and those who desire that The Taking Of Pelham 1 2 3 open well in two weeks?  Just as the death of Health Ledger and the prostitution-related arrest of Hugh Grant gave an added box office boost to their respective projects, John Travolta’s family tragedy will have the effect of turning an arbitrary publicity tour (by Washington and others involved in the film) into a genuine news story that will place the film in the fore minds of readers and viewers everywhere.  Sad to say, but the death of Travolta’s son is nothing but good news for the financial success of his latest picture.

Scott Mendelson

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Apparently Cameron’s house from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off is for sale. Get out your wallet’s though because it’s going for 2.3 million. However, if you’re a Hughes completist you’d better be able to shit gold because you’ll need a bit more than twice that (4.9 million to be exact) to also buy a red 1961 Ferrari 250 GT California Spyder like in the movie.

Being a huge fan of old Hughes movies I find this awesome. I find it even more awesome that the real estate agent is called Meladee Hughes.

So let’s see here…

House: 2.3 Million
Ferrari: 4.9 million
Tesla Ball: 100 bucks
Alan Ruck personalized answering machine message: Pucker up, Buttercup.

Well, that leaves me in the lurch, and this house is just too damn nice to go to some phillistine who won’t appreciate the Hughes connection. 

Kevin Smith, you know what you gotta do man.

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One feature film.  Seven years worth of television.  Five years worth of closely related spin-off television.  Countless comic books.  What ideas can a new movie, starting from scratch, possibly explore that Joss Whedon and his merry bunch haven’t already dealt with?  Apparently the original minds behind the first Buffy the Vampire Slayer property think there’s something to be mined, because they are apparently off to remake-ville.

How much darker can you make this property, aside from just turning it into a gore-filled R-rated slasher film?  Why make a point to avoid the sort of tangled mythology and rich continuity that made the show strong in the first place?  What possible success can come out of rebooting a series whose fans are so insanely loyal to the original cast and crew that they will likely boycott your product on principal?

Regardless of your feelings toward remakes or reboots, this is a stunningly miscalculated idea.  The reason that Buffy the Vampire Slayer is so respected as a property is because of the people behind and in front of the camera.  Fans couldn’t care less about the idea per se of a former California cheerleader turned ass-kicking vampire hunter (at least I didn’t).  It was all in the execution.  Whedon and company used the trappings to create a rich mythology, uncommonly vivid characters, and potent social commentary that rarely got in the way of the storytelling.

And, frankly, the very fans that would theoretically line up for a new Buffy movie are just the sort to take this news the worst.  Buffy fans are on par with Trekkies, and it took forty-years for Star Trek fans to be accommodating for a redo of their favorite series.  This just seems contradictory in logic.  Like Star Trek, the basic premise (Stage Coach in space) wasn’t what made the show an iconic piece of 1960s culture, but rather the execution and the characters that inhabited said universe.  The various spin offs had the luxury of being created by or approved by the original creators, thus giving them the breathing room to establish new characters in the same universe.  I can’t imagine that this will do any better than the several ‘vampire with a soul’ TV shows that have been attempted (the new Dark Shadows, Vampire Diaries, Moonlight) in the wake of Angel’s cancellation.

Basically, I’m guessing that Fran Rubel Kuzui (the director of the first film and original executive producer of the series) doesn’t own the rights to any other properties and haven’t had much luck getting other projects off the ground.  So, since everyone’s gotta eat, she is trying to cash in on the one chip she has.  I’m sympathetic, but this is just a silly idea.  I’m not saying it will flop, but I can’t imagine what it can bring to the table (besides amped-up action, more explicit sexuality, and more graphic violence) that the Scooby Gang hasn’t already explored.

And, come what may, it’s only been six years people!

Scott Mendelson

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Looks nice, and I’m most amused that WB feels that the brand is so familiar that they need not even put the full title of the film in the poster.  I could do without the ‘dark secrets revealed’ tag, as a series this strong doesn’t need such textual silliness (just like that final Dark Knight poster didn’t need that dumb ‘welcome to a city without rules’ tag line).  With Terminator Salvation sputtering out and Star Trek seemingly peaking at $250 million at best, it’s increasingly clear that the summer showdown is coming down to Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince and Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen, with only Up existing as a possible spoiler (just as Finding Nemo dominated a disappointing June 2003 slate and emerge victorious).

Scott Mendelson

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This week’s Sound on Sight podcasts include an overview of the father of the Terminator, James Cameron and an exploration of the entire Terminator Franchise.

Is T4 really that bad? Did Al say something really offensive? Tune in to fine out.
Episode 120: James Cameron

Episode 121: The Terminator Franchise
Next week: Jim Jarmush
Ghost Dog - Down By Law - Limits of Control
& Sam Raimi
Evil Dead Franchise and Drag Me To Hell
You can also listen live at 1690 AM in Montreal, or CJLO.com on Mondays 9 - 11 PM (EST).

And please, leave us some feedback, we love to know what you think.

~Mariko

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As expected, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian pulled a rock-solid 3.49x multiplier over its three-day Fri-Sun weekend, grossing $54.1 million. The four-day gross is $70 million. This is a big win for a sequel that most underestimated, not remembering that the first film grossed a whopping $250 million in the US, which tops any X-Men, James Bond, Terminator, Star Trek, Bourne, or Superman picture to date. That initial film opened over Christmas weekend. It had the advantage of arriving right in the middle of Christmas vacation, but had the disadvantage of having its third day occur on the dreaded Christmas Eve. It ended up grossing $30 million over three days and $42 million over four days. It took the first Night at the Museum just over six days to reach the $70 million mark. Like the most successful family films, this sequel had its smallest day on its opening day. To wit, its first four days were - $15.5 million, $20 million, $18..5 million, and a Monday gross of $15.8 million. The biggest single day gross for Night at the Museum was $13.7 million on December 30th, 2006.

Now no one expects this sequel to have the kind of legs that the original had. Quite frankly, December releases are infamous for their long legs. Only in December can a $10 million opening weekend can still net you $90 million if the film is good enough (The Emperor’s New Groove in December 2000) or where a $5-6 million opening weekend just before Christmas still get you over the $50 million mark (Sabrina, Mouse Hunt). But still, in this day and age, a $30 million opener going on to cross $200 million without being an actual cultural phenomenon is a rare thing (Cast Away was another freak occurrence over Christmas 2000).

But this boffo opening weekend for Battle of the Smithsonian gives the sequel a little breathing room for the usual quick-kill nature of summer sequels. A mere 3x weekend-to-total gives the film $210 million (using the four-day $70 million total). Even if it performs like the likely 2/3 track of Angels Vs. Demons (which is currently running a bit under 2/3 the pace of The Da Vinci Code), that still gives the film a domestic total of $167 million and an international total of $383 million. The biggest obstacles are the next two weekends, as two powerhouse family projects make their move. Next weekend brings Disney/Pixar’s Up and the weekend after that is the Universal Will Ferrell comedy adventure Land of the Lost. If the Ben Stiller vehicle can weather the storm, and the IMAX screens will help with that, then this could easily be a $200 million performer. This is especially true if Up ends up being too depressing for parents and Land of the Lost ends up being too PG-13-y for younger kids. All of this is pure speculation, but one can only speculate in a summer filled with so few sure things.

I’ve written at length about Terminator Salvation, but the new five-day total is officially $65.3 million. For the record, this is not even close to a flop, but merely a much-too expensive picture that won’t measure up to somewhat inflated expectations. (Mis) casting Christian Bale was not enough to make up for the lack of the series’s marquee name and this series was not one that justified the $200 million investment. Furthermore, nothing against McG, but Warner Bros. should not have hired a director that was so loathed (fairly or not) by the core geek community. Heck, at least bringing Jonathan Mostow back would have maintained some series continuity. Most importantly, this was a film that should have cost $150 million tops.

The Terminator series has always been a vaguely cult-ish sci-fi property. Terminator 2: Judgment Day was the exception to the rule, due to a killer trailer, its groundbreaking special effects, and its opening right as Arnold Schwarzenegger was at the peak of his fame (he was coming off the crowd-pleasing trio of Twins, Total Recall, and Kindergarten Cop). But because they allowed the budget to spiral past $200 million, a moderately OK box office performance becomes a potential disaster. I’ve said this a lot and it’s worth repeating… studios have to stop spending so much on their major franchise pictures that each and everyone has to all-but break records just to break even. It’s easy to applaud Warner Bros. when they throw unlimited funds at The Dark Knight or Harry Potter, and its easy to beat them up when they do the same for Speed Racer or Poseidon. But this is an industry-wide problem. DVDs aren’t going to save you anymore and you can’t always count on a doubling or tripling of the domestic gross overseas.

Anyway, moving on, Star Trek continued to prove me dead wrong with another below-50% dip in weekend three (the 3-day to 3-day weekend drop was 46.8%). Direct competition with Terminator Salvation prevented the film from equaling last weekend’s three day take over the four-day weekend, but its four-day $29.3 million take (and $22 million three-day take) pushed its total to $191 million. Alas, it will have to wait a day or two at most to overtake Monsters Vs. Aliens ($193.7 million) as the year’s highest grossing film. It’s still petering out a little quicker than the word of mouth and general audience excitement would account for, but next weekend will be the one of reckoning. If it holds up, it’ll make it to $250 million+ and become the inflation-adjusted highest-grossing Star Trek picture of all time (that would be the $235 million adjusted gross for Star Trek: The Motion Picture). If it crumbles, it’ll stop dead at a still terrific $225 million. Either way, Paramount is playing long term with this franchise, so the sky is the limit for the eventual sequel.

Angels & Demons dropped a disturbing 53% in its second three-day weekend (40.7% if you count all four days). Still, the original film dropped a larger 55%, but this sequel is still pulling in the expected 2/3 business of The Da Vinci Code. No surprises here, although I’m sure that Sony would have preferred a $100 million+ gross for the end of the second weekend, but $87.5 million isn’t so bad. This will cross $100 million next weekend and probably has another $30 million left (especially as Sony is stupidly releasing the adult-thriller June alternative, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 in two weeks). Not a major performance, but (as expected) the international numbers are coming to the rescue. The eleven-day international total is already $286 million.

Dance Movie opened to $12.62 million over four days. I couldn’t care less, and you probably don’t either. Moving on (for a spoof that actually feels like a 1980s ZAZ comedy, try Superhero Movie). X-Men Origins: Wolverine posted another 45.1% three-day to three-day weekend drop in its fourth weekend. Its $8 million three-day and $9.9 million four-day took the picture over the $165 million mark. It’ll crap out at $180 million, and the international business is doing just fine. The current international total, not counting this weekend’s overseas gross, is $310 million. Ironically, for all the insane circumstances surrounding this movie’s production and release (amazing how Fox never found whomever leaked that bootleg), this one pretty much did the business that it was always likely going to do. It was never going to play like Iron Man or even a top-flier X-Men sequel, and it was lucky that it didn’t end up like a Hulk film. I still can’t wait for the director’s commentary on the DVD/Blu Ray.

And that’s pretty much all the news that’s fit to print. Join us next weekend when Up makes the obligatory $50-70 million over opening weekend and Sam Raimi returns to horror with the ridiculous (but often ridiculously fun) Drag Me To Hell.

Scott Mendelson

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Unlike everyone else with a blog/web site, I do prefer to wait till the final numbers before discussing box office at length (part of that is convenience, as I’m usually playing with my daughter when the Sunday estimates roll in).  So here’s the top-ten list for now, and I’ll discuss everything non-Terminator related on Monday night or Tuesday.  For now, it’s time for to face facts about a certain beloved sci-fi franchise.

There was no major Saturday bounce.  Grosses actually went down 1.6% from Friday to Saturday. Terminator Salvation is officially in trouble.  I was bending over backwards to be fair, not wanting to the be the sort of pundit to condemn a movie as a financial disappointment after just one or two days.  But while the three-day total is $43 million, which is just below the three-day opening Fri-Sun for Terminator 3, the five day total is expected to be a bit less than the $72 million that Rise of the Machines pulled in over July 4th weekend in 2003.  The $56 million four-day total is already $3 million behind the Jonathan Mostow sequel, and it’s only going downhill from here.

Ironically, it may be a matter of expectations.  Everyone expected that the third Terminator film was going to be a cash grab, designed to give Arnold Schwarzenegger one last payday before his California gubernatorial run.  Unless I’m mistaken, it’s near-record $170 million budget was caused partially by the actor’s insistence on shooting in Los Angeles, in order to boost the economy of the business capital of the state he wanted to run.  Cringe-inducing trailers highlighting the campier elements did not help.  But the film shocked critics and audiences by actually being pretty good, with tight, low-key character interplay and some astonishing action beats (plus a stunningly powerful finale).  So it was able to weather the one-two onslaught of Pirates of the Caribbean and Bay Boys 2.  The film pulled in $150 million in the US and nearly $300 million overseas for a profitable $433 million total.

Comparatively, for whatever reason, expectations were high for the fourth installment.  I’m honestly not sure why.  Yes Christian Bale is a great actor, but he was no more suited to play John Conner than Kevin Costner was to play Robin Hood (Bale may have a reputation as a gloomy brooder, but most of his characters are lively mad men).  While I have nothing against McG and rather enjoyed the first Charlies Angels, his name did not inspire confidence amongst the masses.  So why did everyone expect this to be something other than a bigger budget variation on Reign of Fire, with robots filling in for dragons (and minus the character development)?  Why didn’t we expect Warner Bros. to (apparently) panic over the collapse of Watchmen and demand a PG-13, action-filled theatrical cut?  The trailers promised atmosphere and action, and that’s what the picture delivered on in spades.  I’m not saying the movie is a wrongly condemned masterpiece, but I think the movie turned out about how we all should have known it would had we been thinking logically.

So the film will likely end its first five days with about $66 million.  After that, lousy word of mouth and negative press will keep it fighting to even approach the $150 million that part 3 reached.  The official budget, which was funded by six private production companies, is ‘only’ $200 million but, and I mean this as a compliment, I don’t believe that for a second.  The ad campaign has been super-saturation level as well, so this very expensive marketing investment could hurt Warner Bros. in a mass-layoff kinda way, since Columbia has the rights for international distribution (and this film could very well double or triple its domestic take overseas).  The saving grace for Warner’s domestic investment may be the DVD/Blu Ray release that may or may not contained some kind of extended cut involving that 40 minutes of deleted footage.  Here’s hoping that WB Home Video doesn’t wimp out Ala Speed Racer and just cancel all of the already completed bonus materials.

With Terminator Salvation, Observe & Report, and Watchmen under performing to varying degrees, Warner Bros’ decision to move Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince to July is now an unmitigated stroke of genius.  It’s now up to ‘the boy who lived’ to save the studio, as well as the world.  Who would have thought that Warner Bros’ highest grossing picture of 2009, heading into July, would be Gran Torino?

Scott Mendelson

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The list…
As expected by many (including myself), Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian took the top spot away from Terminator Salvation on its first night.  The sequel to the insanely leggy 2006 family favorite took in $15.3 million, while Terminator Salvation took in $14.8 million on its second day of release.  For comparison, the first Night at the Museum took in $12.1 million on opening day, but it only managed an opening weekend of $30 million, since its first Sunday fell on the box office black hole known as Christmas Eve.  From the looks of things, the three-day total will be around or above $45 million, putting this franchise right in line with the National Treasure series (the $35 million opening original gave way to a $45 million opening sequel).  I’d just assume not speculate too much until the full weekend numbers are in.  Family-driven matinees could absolutely explode over the weekend, leading to a three-day total well over $50 million (a 3.5x multiplier would give it $54 million for the three-day weekend).  But this is a rock-solid, if not spectacular start for a film that most expected to place second for the weekend.

But with Saturday, Sunday, and Monday matinees now in play, Terminator Salvation is now doomed to come in second for the weekend.  At this point, there is no reason to assume that it’s not playing like and old-fashioned, adult-skewing hit that will peak on Saturday instead of opening day (think Indiana Jones 4 or King Kong).  For example, the $14.8 million looks like only a token 11% uptick from its opening Thursday, if you take away the $3 million in midnight showings, then the Thursday to Friday bounce becomes a more impressive 35% increase.  Tomato/tomata perhaps, but its too soon to write this one off quite yet (Saturday is this film’s day of reckoning).

As of this moment, the two-day total is still right in line with the $28 million earned by Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, and the former sequel had the advantage of opening in the middle of summer vacation (while this new sequel had the advantage of six years worth of inflation).  By Monday, it should be sitting right around the $72 million that Terminator 3 earned over the five-day Fourth of July weekend.  Those who are making negative comparisons to Fast & Furious should remember that the three-day total for T3 ($44 million) was still under the three-day opening weekend of 2 Fast 2 Furious ($50 million) in the summer of 2003.

For the record, I still think it was beyond stupid for Warner Bros. to open this one a day early.  First of all, by splitting the opening day audience into two non-vacation days, you basically ended up with two middling box office days as opposed to one superior opening day.  I’d imagine that WB would be more impressed with a $20-$25 million opening day that blew away Night at the Museum 2, as opposed to a $28 million two-day total.  Second of all, the film isn’t all that good, and the extra day has just given the general audiences one extra day to tell their friends as the weekend rolls on.  I call this the ‘Godzilla Rule’: if your movie isn’t all that good, do NOT open it early and allow bad word of mouth to spread prior to the Fri-Sun weekend (see also - Matrix Revolutions and Superman Returns).

Angels & Demons fell a disturbing 63% from last Friday, which is especially troubling as the opening day wasn’t particularly front-loaded.  Barring a miracle (no pun intended), Angels & Demons will not quite reach the $100 million mark by Monday (its Friday total is $63 million).  Star Trek fell 51% on its first non-IMAX buffered day (although apparently many IMAX theaters are still doing midnight Star Trek IMAX showings), which means it’ll still spend its third weekend with a drop of well under 50%.  I’d favor Star Trek to take third place for the overall weekend, as geeks who felt burned by Terminator Salvation or decided to heed their friends’ advice and not go at all… they are far more likely to check out Star Trek than Angels & Demons.  It’ll be close, but Star Trek should eclipse the (estimated) $193 earned by Monsters Vs. Aliens by Monday.

More to come as the final numbers roll in over the weekend.

Scott Mendelson

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I’ve never seen the critically acclaimed Nickelodeon show, Avatar: The Last Airbender, that this film is based on, but it’s only three seasons long, so I really ought to get around to it over the next year.  The USA Today article is mainly a puff piece, but the Slashfilm article has a nice film-to cartoon character comparison.  The latter article states that the teaser will be debuting with fellow Paramount tent pole spectacle Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen.

Come what may, this is certainly a shot across the bow to everyone who complains that M. Night Shyamalan never changes his template.  I’m not sure I agree with that (truth be told, his only two pure thrillers were Signs and The Happening), but it certainly may do him some good to direct someone else’s material for a change.  I still say he should try a musical.  It would be slow, ponderous, filled with empathic characters, and most of the singing would happen offscreen.  Anyway, The Last Airbender opens July 2nd, 2010.

Scott Mendelson

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